How can the new US aid package change the outcome of the Ukraine conflict? 0How can the new US aid package change the outcome of the Ukraine conflict? 0

(Dan Tri) – Russia seems to have gained the upper hand in the war in Ukraine in 2024 when Kiev Ukraine ran out of ammunition and firepower.

Ukrainian soldiers on armored vehicles in Kharkov (Photo: AFP).

Ukraine has been struggling against Russian attacks since US military aid essentially stalled late last year, with the shortage of artillery becoming increasingly serious.

Russian forces increasingly overwhelmed Kiev with a superior firepower ratio, increasing from 5:1 to 10:1, meaning that Ukrainian artillery was increasingly unable to stop Russian forces from ground attacks.

At the same time, Ukraine lacks air defense and missile defense systems, putting its people in more danger.

Therefore, the $61 billion aid package that has been passed by the US House of Representatives and is about to be voted on in the Senate is being closely watched by all parties.

What has the US prepared in advance?

It is expected that the Senate vote will take place on April 23.

Pentagon officials said on April 19 that they are preparing the first round of aid, so the White House will be able to approve and Ukraine will receive aid within days of Senate approval.

The first round of aid could focus on providing much-needed artillery and smart defense systems.

Speaking on April 18, Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder said the US has a very strong logistics network that allows them to transport equipment very quickly.

More military aid is likely to arrive in the following weeks.

The new aid package provides $60.84 billion to support Ukraine, including $13.8 billion for Ukraine to buy advanced weapons, $13.4 billion to replenish US stockpiles, and $11 billion to support Ukraine.

However, experts warn that it will be some time before the battlefield shows change.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on April 21 that Russia may be trying to launch a hasty attack and conduct additional air strikes during this time to give itself an advantage in the region.

Possible impact on the war

How can the new US aid package change the outcome of the Ukraine conflict?

The US aid package is unlikely to significantly change the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine (Photo: Getyt).

Although the United States is preparing huge amounts of military aid for Ukraine, which will certainly help improve Kiev’s position on the battlefield, the next few weeks remain uncertain.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) headquarters reported on April 20 that the huge volume of goods being delivered was a problem in itself because Ukraine’s logistics network was not capable of immediate distribution.

Thus, there will be some time, about a few weeks, when Ukrainian forces as well as the country’s cities will remain vulnerable to Russian attacks.

ISW said: `The Russian military command will likely increase offensive operations as well as missile and drone attacks, aiming to have a significant impact that will certainly be difficult for them.

While it believes Russia is unlikely to achieve a significant breakthrough on the front lines, the agency said Moscow’s forces could still make significant offensive progress in the coming weeks.

According to ISW, Russia may prioritize areas where Ukraine’s defense forces appear to be relatively unstable, mainly west of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, or areas within reach of a key target,

ISW predicts that Russian forces will continue to attack Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to force Ukraine to face a humanitarian crisis.

According to some estimates and changes on the battlefield, Russia is also increasing defense spending by up to 7.5% of GDP.

Moscow increasingly uses rudimentary but dangerous air-launched glide bombs to devastate the front line, from distances that Kiev cannot fight back.

ISW said that although it cannot be predicted with certainty, the flow of US military aid will help Ukraine hold the front line and repel a major Russian attack expected in June.

In the long term, however, much will depend on further aid from Ukraine’s allies as well as Russia’s ability to mobilize its population and industrial sector to continue supporting the military campaign.

Experts also do not expect Ukraine to turn the tide on the battlefield in 2024.

`The bottom line is that this funding can probably only help stabilize Ukraine’s position this year and start preparing for operations in 2025,` said Matthew Savill of the military research organization Rusi.

According to some experts, to help Ukraine make significant progress on the battlefield, not only the US and Europe need to increase aid.

Meanwhile, Mr. Hodges said that 2024 is probably `the year of industrial competition`, when both sides try to accumulate resources to deliver a decisive blow next year.

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