(Dan Tri) – The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that the Russian military may escalate their attacks, taking advantage of time before the US receives new security support for Ukraine.
Russia took control of Avdiivka but there were certain losses (Illustration: Reddit).
According to ISW, on April 20, the US House of Representatives approved a proposal to allocate about 60 billion USD in aid to Ukraine.
Once the above requirements are completed, the logistics of delivering US aid to the front lines in Ukraine will still take several weeks and so it will not begin to impact the front situation anytime soon.
`Consequently, the situation on the front is likely to continue to deteriorate during this time, especially if Russian forces escalate attacks to take advantage of the time before new Russian aid arrives,` the report said.
Analysts say Ukraine may suffer further setbacks in the coming weeks while it waits for US security assistance to help Kiev stabilize the front, but it can prevent the current offensive from the US.
The threat of a significant Russian operational breakthrough in the coming weeks remains, the assessment added, although Ukrainian commanders may have more leeway in accepting the risks.
Experts say that Moscow forces will likely step up offensive operations, missile and UAV attacks in the coming weeks to take advantage of the time afforded by Ukraine’s logistical constraints.
Additionally, Moscow forces have continued, and in some areas have increased, offensive operations, likely taking advantage of unusually dry spring conditions and persistent Ukrainian equipment shortages.
At the same time, experts point out that Moscow forces have only achieved tactical success in the past six months due to the worsening situation in Ukraine, and it is difficult to achieve a breakthrough to collapse the front line.
However, Russia can still make significant operational gains in the coming weeks by prioritizing areas of the front where Ukraine’s defenses appear relatively unstable, especially on the south.
By June, Ukraine will likely be in a significantly better operational position, despite delays in delivering US security assistance to the front, and Russian military commanders will likely consider doing so.
In recent months, due to uncertainty about the resumption of US aid to Ukraine, ISW has considered a variety of forecasts, from the most favorable to the most dangerous possible consequences.
ISW will likely narrow this scope in the coming months as the security implications of Western support for Ukraine become clearer and the Kremlin decides how to respond to them.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky in Dnipro on April 19 (Photo: Office of the President).
Notable comments in ISW’s April 20 report:
First, on April 20, the US House of Representatives passed a bill to help Ukraine worth about 60 billion USD.
This aid will not start to have an impact on the front lines for several weeks.
Second, the Ukrainian military may suffer further setbacks in the coming weeks while awaiting US security assistance to help Ukraine stabilize the front, but they will likely be able to stop the current offensive.
Third, Moscow forces will likely ramp up ongoing offensive operations as well as missile and UAV strikes in the coming weeks to take advantage of Ukraine’s troubled logistics.
Fourth, by June, Ukraine will likely be in a significantly better operational position, despite delays in providing US security assistance to the front, and Russian military commanders will likely
Fifth, the possibility of the US resuming security assistance to Ukraine marks a major turning point in the conflict in Ukraine, but the Kremlin, the West and Ukraine still have to make additional decisions to determine the nature and
Friday, on the night of April 19 and 20, Ukrainian forces reportedly carried out successful UAV attacks against a number of energy infrastructure and fuel storage facilities in Russia.
Seventh, Moscow forces have recently made confirmed advances near Chasov Yar (Bakhmut) and northwest of Avdiivka, while Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances south of Kremenaya.
Eighth, Ukrainian and Russian sources said the Russian military is using US-made 203mm artillery shells that the country may have received from Iran.
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