Iran attacks Israel: Who really wins in the ultimate showdown?

(Dan Tri) – Israel’s air defense announced that it took down Iranian targets with a `successful interception rate of up to 99%`.

Israel’s Iron Dome defense system intercepts rockets launched from the Gaza Strip on October 8, 2023 (Photo: AFP).

Purpose of Iran’s attack on Israel

After more than 10 days of deploying troops and making strategic decisions, Iran finally launched a joint attack with more than 300 large-scale missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on Israel from the night of April 13 to

Iran’s Chief of General Staff, General Bagheri, said on April 15 that the country’s army attacked a major Israeli intelligence center in the Syria-Israel border area and the Nevatim air base.

According to the US and Israel, Iran launched 185 UAVs, 36 cruise missiles and 110 ballistic missiles.

Obviously, the two sides have different views on the number of weapons used as well as the effectiveness of the attacks.

Because the information of the two sides is so different, we can rely on the information of the attacking party, Iran, to objectively compare and analyze.

First of all, Iran’s recent attack on Israel served political purposes, not purely military attacks.

However, three days before the official attack, Tehran notified neighbors of both Iran and Israel.

After the US and Israel deployed interception forces, they revealed that intelligence information showed that the enemy could attack Israel.

After the attack began on the night of April 13, the first weapon used was a suicide UAV.

Although the suicide UAV took off first and the missile was launched later, Tehran may have more effective attack options, if purely considering the military penetration effect.

For example, UAVs can be launched from Israel’s neighbors such as Lebanon and Syria through proxy forces, while ballistic missiles can be launched in Iran.

Assessing Iran’s actual activities, this is almost an `open test` for Israel.

Obviously this is a retaliation but why does Tehran have to do this?

Map of Iran and Israel (Photo: BBC)

Is Israel determined to drag America into war with Iran?

According to analysts, although Iran is the leading country in the `Arc of Resistance` against the US and Israel in the Middle East, it does not want to personally confront Israel, but instead operates through a model.

Therefore, despite Israel’s continuous air strikes on IRGC targets in Syria, Iran has chosen to `suck on the soapberry`.

The proxy war model requires minimal investment, but must achieve maximum benefits, so it’s okay to have a little damage, and the side that loses the most certainly includes Syria or Lebanon.

However, Israel has continuously suffered huge losses and now they have reached the point of `being unable to handle` Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi, so it is easy to understand their anger towards Iran, the manipulator behind the scenes.

In addition, Israel now understands that they cannot and are truly powerless to reverse the current situation on their own.

To drag Washington into action, it is necessary to completely anger Tehran and force the US to react by `deciding the fate` of Iran.

Therefore, on April 1, Israel broke the unwritten law and chose an extreme plan, directly attacking the Iranian Embassy in Syria and killing two IRGC generals – who were `on a business trip` in Syria.

This actually not only puts Tehran in an awkward position, but also makes Washington quite unhappy because the US, like Iran, after all, does not want to be the center of the current struggle.

The US is also entangled in many quagmires, from Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe and even Latin America.

The Middle East is the most important geopolitical region of the US. If the US `tolerates` Israel, it will upset Arab countries and the international community, and push these countries’ hatred towards the US.

So the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus actually set Iran and America on fire at the same time.

If we do not respond, the military and civilians in the country, especially the Revolutionary Guard, will `have difficulty saying anything`.

However, if Iran overreacts, what they fear is not a wave of counterattacks from Israel, but that the situation could then spiral out of control.

Therefore, Iran’s countermeasures must be reasonable and moderate.

Iranian missiles hit targets in Israel (Source: Telegram).

Why did Iran notify the `other side` early?

Tehran must not only demonstrate its credibility as the region’s `big brother`, but also demonstrate its strength.

Considering these three goals, as long as Iran chooses to attack directly into Israeli territory, this action is enough to be considered `big brother status`.

In terms of demonstrating strength and controlling the escalation of the situation, Iran needs to be able to attack Israeli military targets without causing too heavy losses, especially civilian casualties, to achieve this end.

Therefore, it is easy to understand that Iran indirectly informed the other side in advance of the attack time, and directly gave the other side early warning time when choosing an attack plan.

In terms of offensive weapons, hundreds of suicide UAVs were used, which really only had the effect of consuming the enemy’s anti-aircraft weapons.

These UAVs, which can cost just under $20,000, are very cheap to launch but can consume a lot of enemy anti-aircraft missiles.

Regarding the type of missiles that Iran used in the recent attack, many of the missiles were actually old models, their purpose was to test and consume the other side’s high-value anti-aircraft ammunition.

But what they really want to really test are some high-performance missiles, some of which are hypersonic, newly developed by Iran.

During the actual interception, because Iran was more than 1,000 km away from Israel, fighter jets from the US, UK, France and other countries as well as the Jordanian army began organizing to intercept the UAV right on the journey.

Furthermore, Israeli Air Force fighter jets are also dispatched to intercept and Iran’s UAVs or cruise missiles will actually be shot down in large numbers during this period.

After all, with such good preparation, effective interception is understandable.

Iran’s main offensive weapons are ballistic missiles, but Israel attaches great importance to building a multi-layered air defense and anti-missile system.

These systems successfully intercepted a large number of incoming Iranian missiles.

However, there are also videos showing that some missiles actually successfully penetrated Israel’s defense system, perhaps they were high-performance missiles launched in a later wave.

Therefore, objectively assessed, the fact that the US and Israel intercepted most targets is not a big problem.

After all, US officials now admit that at least nine missiles hit two Israeli bases.